IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON GROUNDWATER IN NORTH EAST SINAI

Abstract

Groundwater is the main resource of water in Sheikh Zuwaid-Rafah area in North Sinai Peninsula. The unconfined to semi confined quaternary aquifers that forms the groundwater system and extends on the Mediterranean coastal plain, is vulnerable to many non-climate stresses such as over-pumping, pollution sources and sea water encroachment (El-Tablawi, 1997; El Alfy, 2003). In the Forth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007), Mediterranean region were considered to be a ‘hot spot’ for climate change, it experienced an uneven increase in surface air temperature ranging from 0.2ºC to 2.0ºC that occurred from 1970 to 2004. One of the most considerable consequences of climate change is the alteration of the hydrological cycle through changing precipitation, evaporation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture, which will affect the quantity and quality of regional water resources (Gleick & Adams, 2000; Xu, 2000). Altering precipitation in Sheikh Zuwaid-Rafah area can affect the renewable portion of groundwater leading to large scale of instability this is likely to exacerbate vulnerability. This formed a motivation to quantify the future potential impacts of climate change on groundwater storage and salt transfer of the study region for the twenty first century. The overall objective of this study is to assess the hydrogeological consequences of climate change at Sheikh Zuwaid-Rafah region by the end of the twenty one century. Therefore this research integrated the outputs of three general global models (CNRM-CM5, GFDL-ESM2M and EC-EARTH) downscaled by regional climate model (RCA4) under two representative concentration pathways RCPs scenarios 4.5 and 8.5, into two hydrological models to provide approximations of climate change impacts on water quantity and quality in El Sheikh Zuwaid-Rafah quaternary aquifer system which is the main source of water in the area.