Statistical Model to Determine the Factorsthat Affect Liver Cancer

Abstract

Liver cancer is one of the most malignant tumors with a high mortality rate,aggressive growth behavior and a high recurrence rate.Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) which is the most frequenttype of cancerliver is a major worldwide public health concern. Worldwide, hepatocellular carcinoma ranks sixth among cancer incidence, and is the second leading cause of cancer death,withan estimated 745,500 cases of death in the world during 2012.Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC)is a major public health problem in Egypt and its incidence is increasing. It also has a rising incidence in Egypt mostly due to high prevalence of viral hepatitis and its complications. This study aims toidentify therisk factors that affect the survival of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients,using the statistical models to predict survival of HCC patients, especially because of spread of viralhepatitis C infection in Egypt, with its impact on the probability of a decline in survival of these patients.It changes fast and can stay inside the patient’s body for many years causing great damage and complications to liver, and causing a problem to human health. Hepatitis C virus causes many serious diseases which are life-threatening leading to death. Hepatitis C virus still concerns and puzzles human minds. Despite some hepatitis viruses cause acute liver inflammation leading to liver dysfunction, but hepatitis C virus remains the most virulent deadly virus of the liver.Some of the risk factors such aspatient’s gender,patient’s age group, hepatitis C virus,child score, alpha fetoprotein (AFP), andperformance status (PS)have been studied in this study using discriminant analysis model, logistic regression model, artificial neural networks model, and classification and regression tree modelfor prediction of survivalofHCC patients.

2. Nature of the problem

Hepatocellular carcinoma has a rising incidence in Egypt. The problem of increasing incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma rate accompanying the increase in death ratedue tothis disease,has needed to identify the risk factors and causes, and to develop assumptions that may affect the decrease in survival ofHCCpatients. Egypt has the highest hepatitis C virus (HCV) prevalence worldwide, whichaccompanies great dangers to the liver.Due to the increasing incidence ofchronic viral hepatitis C,there is a state of uncertainty in answering the question: Is hepatitis C virus a dangerous and major factor that decreases the survival of HCC patients or not? Also, if it’s one of the major factors,is it accompanied by other factors?

3. Objectives of the Study The early detection and evaluation of risk factors which might affect the decrease of survival rate ofhepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patientsis very important. The prediction of risk factors is an important pivot in saving the lives of these patients, especially HCV patients.Also, it may help doctors to focus on these factors and inform patients to avoid it.The usage of statist