DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR RISK ASSESSMENT IN CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS

Abstract

This research work aims at introducing a decision support system for quantifying the risk especially for petroleum construction projects in Egypt. The proposed Risk Impact Assessment Modeling “RIAM” (Cost overrun Modeling)can be utilized as a tool for estimating the most likely percentages for budgetcontingency during the planning/ execution stage of such projects. Unexpected increase in cost in construction projects are caused by owner, contractor, environments, or a third party in which several types of risk factors may occur concurrently. The effect of cost overrun do not only influence the construction industry but the overall economy as well. Even though construction project increasing in cost has received extensive attention of researchers. In order to meet the deadline of a project and due to the complex nature of construction projects, cost should be flexible enough by adding the cost overrun into the proposed overall tender budget in order to absorb and accommodate any further changes without negatively affecting the overall project cost and duration. The risk factors will be divided into two sections; the first one includes the generic risk factors which will affect any construction project, and the second section will includes the domain (specific) risk factors which have significant effect on the petroleum construction projects. This research will discuss the risk assessment from the contractor point of view; on the other hand the risk assessment report developed by the owner will be different. The research will discuss the risk assessment methodology within the tendering stage and before execution of such project, therefore risk control and monitoring will be excluded.