Impacts of Climate Change on Hydropower Production in Blue Nile Basin

Abstract

The hydrological cycle will be affected by Global warming with significant influences on water resources availability. Such changes in the hydrological cycle component will have substantial effect on the local and regional hydrological systems which in order affects environmental, social and economic schemes. This research aims to evaluate the climate change impact on water resources availability for hydropower production in Blue Nile Sub Basin in addition to new development intervention like Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and the planned irrigation projects along the Blue Nile in Ethiopia and Sudan using the results of RegCM4 Regional Climate Model nested with ECHAM5 General Circulation Model (Max Planck institute) to simulate the climatic procedures, and the obtained results are reported. The emissions trajectory of the A1B Scenario of ECHAM output was driven from the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP). The outcomes were then used as inputs for NAM Rainfall-Runoff model and the outputs from NAM were used in the hydrological model Mike Basin, also the Decision Support System model was used to implement the study scenarios. The results show that the implementation of GERD to increase hydropower generation will decrease the average annual outflow from Sudanese dams (Rosieres, Sennar, Merowe) by 1.3 BCM, which almost represents the average annual evaporation losses from GERD, and will decrease the average annual inflow to HAD by 4 BCM, while it will increase the average annual hydropower generation in Ethiopia from almost insignificant to 12460 GWH. Also it will cause a noticeable increase of Sudanese average annual hydropower generation by 1527 GWH, while it will decrease HAD average annual hydropower generation by 468 GWH.