VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT FOR SOME VULNERABLE SECTORS IN EGYPT USING CLIMATE CHANGE REGIONAL CIRCULATION MODELS
Samir Tantawi El-Sayed Tantawi;
Abstract
1. Agriculture is considered as an essential economic driver in Egypt. It is an issue as a local food source, for international trade, food industry and fiber manufacturing and water and land use. The climate change vulnerability of agriculture is mainly attributed to each of economy, social and environmental parameters.
2. The aim of this study is to provide an assessment of the of climate change impacts on agriculture on the long run based on real observations using climate change models.
3. Global Circulation Models (GCM), Regional Circulation Models (RCM) and Crop Models (CM) have been used to generate climate projections up to 2100. Results indicate that climate model performance varies for different regions or process under consideration,
4. Seven GCMs models including BCC (China), CCCMA(Canada), CCSM3 (USA), CCSR (Japan), CNRM (France), ECHAM5 (Germany) and GFDL (USA) were examined with observed meteorology data at different locations in Egypt
5. The Model ECHAM5 (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Germany) has gave the best matching results to observations compared with other models.
6. The efficiency of different Regional Climate models including PRECIS (UK) and RegCM.4 (Italy) in downscaling process has been tested to select best of them with a suitable GCM in Egypt; the two regional models were used on reanalysis data at higher resolution and compare the results from both with observations
7. The RegCM.4 model gave results better than PRECISwith observations.
8. The comparison between climate change scenarios RCP4.5 (greenhouse gas emissions from balance across all energy sources) and RCP8.5 (heterogeneous local identities, e.g. population, per capita economic growth) for the model ECHAM5by RegCM.4 were done to choose the best of them in Egypt. Analyzing the results compared to observations found that the scenario RCP4.5 gave good results compared with the scenario RCP8.5
9. The climate change parameters from the simulated RCP4.5 scenario of the ECHAM5 model has been exported as hourly data in text files at different climatic zones in Egypt for the period from 2010 to 2099, resulted hourly data was converted to daily and monthly data using spreadsheets which used in calculating different agricultural applications like Chilling Units based on two different equations, Growing Degree Hour, Detect the frost days, the ventilation degree, and calculate the Temperature Humidity Index for animals.
10. A comparison between the normal and projected maximum, minimum temperatures, and precipitation was conducted as averages for the periods (2010-2039, 2040-2069, and 2070-2099), it was found that, during the period from 2010 up to 2069 at most of Egypt the minimum temperature and precipitation will increase in all seasons while the maximum temperature will decrease in winter season, and by the period 2070-2099 it was found that the maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation higher than the normal in all seasons.
11. The Extreme Weather Indices (EWI) were analyzed as Maximum of Maximum temperature (TXx), Minimum of Minimum temperature (TNn), frost days, summer days (in winter seasons), and heavy precipitation days for the period from 2010 up to 2089 and it was found that, the Highest TXx was observed during the period 2080-2089 while lowest TNn was observed during the period 2010-2019 in the most of Egypt Governorates.
12. Also it has been observed that, the maximum number of frost days was observed in 2010 decade while the maximum number of summer days in winter season was observed in 2080 decade at most of Egypt governorates, but there was no wide variation found in the number of heavy precipitation days during all studied for each governorate.
13. Some of agricultural applications that affected by the weather also have been studied as
• Food Security; and estimated rates of self-reliance and self-sufficiency for three strategic crops (maize, rice and wheat), it was found that climate change can exacerbate the food security crises that Egypt
2. The aim of this study is to provide an assessment of the of climate change impacts on agriculture on the long run based on real observations using climate change models.
3. Global Circulation Models (GCM), Regional Circulation Models (RCM) and Crop Models (CM) have been used to generate climate projections up to 2100. Results indicate that climate model performance varies for different regions or process under consideration,
4. Seven GCMs models including BCC (China), CCCMA(Canada), CCSM3 (USA), CCSR (Japan), CNRM (France), ECHAM5 (Germany) and GFDL (USA) were examined with observed meteorology data at different locations in Egypt
5. The Model ECHAM5 (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Germany) has gave the best matching results to observations compared with other models.
6. The efficiency of different Regional Climate models including PRECIS (UK) and RegCM.4 (Italy) in downscaling process has been tested to select best of them with a suitable GCM in Egypt; the two regional models were used on reanalysis data at higher resolution and compare the results from both with observations
7. The RegCM.4 model gave results better than PRECISwith observations.
8. The comparison between climate change scenarios RCP4.5 (greenhouse gas emissions from balance across all energy sources) and RCP8.5 (heterogeneous local identities, e.g. population, per capita economic growth) for the model ECHAM5by RegCM.4 were done to choose the best of them in Egypt. Analyzing the results compared to observations found that the scenario RCP4.5 gave good results compared with the scenario RCP8.5
9. The climate change parameters from the simulated RCP4.5 scenario of the ECHAM5 model has been exported as hourly data in text files at different climatic zones in Egypt for the period from 2010 to 2099, resulted hourly data was converted to daily and monthly data using spreadsheets which used in calculating different agricultural applications like Chilling Units based on two different equations, Growing Degree Hour, Detect the frost days, the ventilation degree, and calculate the Temperature Humidity Index for animals.
10. A comparison between the normal and projected maximum, minimum temperatures, and precipitation was conducted as averages for the periods (2010-2039, 2040-2069, and 2070-2099), it was found that, during the period from 2010 up to 2069 at most of Egypt the minimum temperature and precipitation will increase in all seasons while the maximum temperature will decrease in winter season, and by the period 2070-2099 it was found that the maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation higher than the normal in all seasons.
11. The Extreme Weather Indices (EWI) were analyzed as Maximum of Maximum temperature (TXx), Minimum of Minimum temperature (TNn), frost days, summer days (in winter seasons), and heavy precipitation days for the period from 2010 up to 2089 and it was found that, the Highest TXx was observed during the period 2080-2089 while lowest TNn was observed during the period 2010-2019 in the most of Egypt Governorates.
12. Also it has been observed that, the maximum number of frost days was observed in 2010 decade while the maximum number of summer days in winter season was observed in 2080 decade at most of Egypt governorates, but there was no wide variation found in the number of heavy precipitation days during all studied for each governorate.
13. Some of agricultural applications that affected by the weather also have been studied as
• Food Security; and estimated rates of self-reliance and self-sufficiency for three strategic crops (maize, rice and wheat), it was found that climate change can exacerbate the food security crises that Egypt
Other data
| Title | VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT FOR SOME VULNERABLE SECTORS IN EGYPT USING CLIMATE CHANGE REGIONAL CIRCULATION MODELS | Other Titles | تقييم المخاطر والتكيف لبعض القطاعات المهددة بالتغيرات المناخية في مصر باستخدام النماذج الرياضية | Authors | Samir Tantawi El-Sayed Tantawi | Issue Date | 2016 |
Attached Files
| File | Size | Format | |
|---|---|---|---|
| G13874.pdf | 171.13 kB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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