A STATISTICAL MODEL TO PREDICT THE FOOD GAP OF THE WHEAT CROP IN EGYPT

Abstract

Wheat is one of the most important strategic food commodities in Egypt according to food security considerations. The Egyptian society is facing a major challenge that the total production of wheat is still not sufficient for the consumption needs resulting from the increase in population, which lead to the rise of the food gap and increase of wheat, which is reflected in the low self-sufficiency rate, which is shown through the data of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations FAO during the period (1961-2014), therefore the research aims to predict the food gap and components of wheat crop in Egypt during the period (2015-2025) to determine the future of Egypt in terms of food security for this strategic crop. The food gap, production and consumption functions of wheat were estimated using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models, and generalized autoregressive conditional hetero-scedasticity (GARCH) models. The results of the study showed that the best model for predicting the food gap is ARIMA(0, 1, 11) - GARCH(0, 1),ARIMA(0, 1, 1) for the production and ARIMA(6, 1, 8) for the consumption, and that the food gap is expected to increase in thefuture, due to the increase in population.