Risk Assessment in the Construction of Potable Water Treatment Plants in Egypt

Abstract

Life is connected through drinking water as it the most essential aspect of life, even though it though it also represent one of the highest risk for humankind (Water, 2019). Egypt is a part of the world and its population increases every day therefore it is also subject to that risk. According to the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics, drinking water in Egypt per capita fell from 88.9 m3 in 2013 to 76.9 m3 in 2014 representing 13.5% making drinking water one of Egypt's problems in the coming period. Which prompted the Egyptian government to allocate 35% from the total Egyptian government plan to develop potable and wastewater systems in 2015 (4.44 billion Egyptian pounds), equivalent to 1.5 billion Egyptian pounds. Because of the dedication of the Egyptian government represented in the ministry of housing to solve that problem, the result is the rate per capita increased by 45% from 76.9 m3/year 2014 to 112.1 m3/year 2018. The total production also increased by 38% from 7.8 billion m3/year in 2014 to 10.8 billion m3/year in 2018 (CAPMAS, n.d.). The Egyptian government represented in the ministry of housing still invest in the construction of many potable water plants to eradicate of the potable water problems. This type of projects has significant importance due to the strategic impact, big budget, tight schedules, and a lot more obstacles. As the potable water treatment plant, bear a large number of risks, which make this project one of the riskiest projects in the construction business. Two techniques were utilized literature review and meeting with professionals in the construction of this type of projects to identify and verify 56 risk factors. A questionnaire was developed to obtain a professional opinion of the impact and probability of the previously identified risk and its proper response plan. The Risk factor of each risk is calculated using (P+C-(P×C)) formula. A priority list developed to identify the most significant risks. The most significant risks include Fluctuation in the currency exchange rate, delay in contractor payments to sub-contractors, tight schedule and crowding, late delivery of materials, delay in progress payments, inflation, change in energy cost. Internal project risks are slightly more important than external risks. A recommended risk strategy is presented to help contractors in selecting the appropriate approach to respond to any risk of the identified risks in this research, all of this based on the collected data. This research directed to the concerned parties of this type of projects (project manager, sponsors, etc.) to help to better prepare a proper risk plan and their mitigation strategy plan at the start of the project.