Spatio-temporal analysis of Egyptian flower mantis Blepharopsis mendica (order: mantodea), with notes of its future status under climate change

Abstract

Egyptian flower mantis Blepharopsis mendica (Order: Mantodea) is a widespread mantis species throughout the southwest Palearctic region. The ecological and geographical distribution of such interesting species is rarely known. So, through this work, habitat suitability models for its distribution through Egyptian territory were created using MaxEnt software from 90 occurrence records. One topographic (altitude) and eleven bioclimatic variables influencing the species distribution were selected to generate the models. The predicted distribution in Egypt was focused on the Delta, South Sinai, the north-eastern part of the country, and some areas in the west including Siwa Oasis. Temporal analysis between the two periods (1900–1961) and (1961–2017) show current reduction of this species distribution through Delta and its surrounding areas, may be due to urbanization. On the other hand, it increases in newly protected areas of South Sinai. Under the future climate change scenario, the MaxEnt model predicted the habitat gains for B. mendica in RCP 2.6 for 2070 and loss of habitat in RCP 8.5 for the same year. Our results can be used as a basis for conserving this species not only in Egypt, but also throughout the whole of its range, also, it show how the using of geo-information could help in studying animal ecology.