دراسة تحليلية للمخاطرة في الزراعة المصرية

Abstract

The research aimed at identifying risks facing agriculture from water availability and natural hazards by planning the cropping pattern under low risk, and studying the impact of both climate change and geographical area on the productivity per Feddan. The study estimate risk of cropping pattern in the first scenario was estimated to be about 6.6% under normal restrictions. In the second scenario, it was 3.04% under normal restrictions in addition to stabilize the area of rice at 750,000 feddans, with self-sufficiency of 10% and 20% of wheat and maize The total return on risk under the first and second scenarios was about 73.315 and 75.133 million pounds. The cropping pattern in the second scenario is better than the first, as it achieves a higher net return and also achieves state policies in terms of reducing the rice area. It also increases the self-sufficiency of wheat and maize. The effect of climate change and geographical area variation on productivity during the period (2013-2016) showed that their impact ranged from 61 to 92%. There Also was a negative impact of climate change on the productivity per Feddan. except for wheat crop the effect of either wheat has not been determined. The study recommended pulling the optimal cropping pattern, the need to increase the awareness of the seriousness of the negative effects of climate change and the development of awareness programs through the various media, and the production of new varieties afford climate change and salinity, and the use of modern technological methods Such as protected agriculture.