نموذج قياسي لمحددات انتاج وتخزين القمح في مصر

Abstract

The importance of the wheat crop is reflected as one of the main cereals crops and the most important strategic crops that attract the attention of economic policy makers. It is the main source of the bread industry, which is the staple food for all population groups. However, domestic production is not sufficient for population needs. In addition to an increase in the percentage of wheat losses, which leads to increase imports to meet the deficit between wheat production and consumption, and then increase the burden of the import bill. On the other hand, the production and storage of wheat has become one of the most important issues facing Egypt at present and in the future due to the limited number of countries that can export wheat and all of production and storage conditions are subjected to natural and climatic changes. Therefore, the study aims at determining the main determinants of wheat production and storage in Egypt in order to include it in a proposed mechanism for improving the wheat production and storage. In the light of this, the study found (using simulataneous equations models) that the most important determinants of wheat production and storage in Egypt are limited to the cultivated area of wheat, the farm price of wheat, wheat production in the previous year, the imports quantity in the previous year, consumption quantity, wheat storge, import price, population, consumption quantity for the previous year, previous year's storge, imports quantity, where the statistical significance was proved at 0.05 level, and the significance of the model as a whole was proved. It was also found that about (68% -91%) of changes in wheat production and stock were due to the change in the independent variables under study.