The Frequency of Rare Cyclones in the Eastern Mediterranean and Northeastern Africa as a Sign of Climate Change Using Satellite Imagery, Climate Data Models and GIS-Based Analysis

Abstract

Eastern Mediterranean and Northeastern Africa (EMNEA) are exposed to atmospheric depressions that affecting their climatic conditions during the period between October and May of each year “wet season”, and the passage of cyclones is a rare event. In the wet season 2019/2020, Egypt which located in the EMNEA region, exposed to two cyclones that passed from the south to the north in a rare event as well, the first was in October 2019 and called “Medicane” and the second was in March 2020 and called “Dragon”. The study deals with the frequency of the rare cyclones in Egypt during the wet season 2019/2020 as a sign of climate change in the EMNEA region using MODIS/AQUA satellite imagery, climate satellite imagery by the PERSIANN project and CHIRPS model, outputs of the ECMWF climate model as well as outputs of the Global Climate Forecast System (GFS). The study concluded that these cyclones were a rare weather condition represented in a heavy rain volume was about 543 million m3 and gusty winds 65 km/h for the “Medicane” cyclone and about 950 million m3 and a cyclonic wind speed of 120 km/h for the “Dragon” cyclone. In addition, these cyclones were associated with a set of factors that coincided in a rare manner and contributed to the engender and development Which can be considered as a Sing of climate change. These factors were represented in the northern oscillation movement of the Sudan depression and the Red Sea Trough (RST) accompanied by a deepening of a cold depression in the upper atmosphere of 500 hpa, and a simultaneous rise in the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) of the eastern Mediterranean region in the Medicane cyclone, and the convergence of the polar and tropical jet stream in the upper atmosphere above the EMNEA region. In addition to the correlation of these factors with the major pressure oscillations in the world and the occurrence of the El-Nino.