PROPOSED PROBABILSTIC MODEL FOR PREDICTING THE LOWEST BID IN EGYPTIAN CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS

Abstract

Competitive bidding is the major nightmare for contractors because most of their life's blood depends on it It is an intriguing and critical activity of management. It appears -L.,o defy analysis and cloaked with a certain amount of uncertainties, This is because direct cost estimating of construction is 2 complex and crude. process due to the absence of standardization of conditions from one job to the other. Also, the inherently complex factors ofiabor, material and locality make the computation of exact construction costs a matter of accident than of desiRn, Subcontractor's quotation is another factor which affect direct cost estimating. On the other hand, indirect cost and markup estimating depend on a large number of factors such as total number of competitors the contractor pping to compete with and size of the project. In addition, mos( oF the contractors liave.noL 2-; systematic approach cif bidding