System dynamics approach to simulate the impacts of COVID-19 on cost overruns and time delay of construction projects

Abstract

The Covid-19 outbreak caused a significant impact on all industries in the world. Especially, the industries -related to construction. It has continued operating albeit with some degree of disruption. This research objective is to develop a simulation model to understand how the COVID-19 outbreak and different policies employed by countries that impact the performance of construction projects. A System Dynamics model using Anylogic software was developed to simulate the impacts official number of reported infected cases nationally, and enforcement of health and safety measures by construction companies on key project performance indicators (time and cost). The model was validated using data from a survey was conducted among 57 projects covering six countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The system dynamics model produced an identical result to the conducted survey as indicated in the validation section. The developed model can be used by construction companies and governments.