Fragmentation Analysis of the Nile Delta; A Development of Regional Planning Tool

Abstract

The Nile Delta is the last stretch of the world’s longest river and one of the oldest deltas with highly fertile and productive agricultural soils; it is – at the same time – one of the most extensive urban networks worldwide, housing almost 50% of the Egyptian population. An urban network with a high growth rate, corresponding to high losses of fertile agricultural soil and an overall highly fragmented landscape fabric. The Nile Delta is a complex, diverse landscape entity consisting of a lot of different and sometimes contradicting elements with complex interactions between each other and affected by various external factors (e.g., seawater intrusion in the underground delta aquifer) The Thesis focus on studying the encroachments on the agricultural lands of the Delta and its subsequent agricultural land fragmentation, whether ownership or physical fragmentation. The Study uses empirical estimation modeling through the utilization of logistic regression analysis. Analyzing the urban driving forces development across over four decades. Then, through the Nile Delta’s possible development scenarios, project the magnitude and direction of future urban growth across the region.