AN EXPERT SYSTEM FOR ENHANCED ACCURACY OF COST ESTIMATING IN EPC/TURN-KEY PROJECTS

Abstract

An expert system based on Fuzzy logic would be developed and used to enhance the cost estimation accuracy in EPC projects. The cost estimation accuracy in EPC projects depends on multiple variables representing the project parameters. These variables were classified into 5 categories: tender documents, contract obligations, tender status, and circumstances, known data about the project status and the estimate resources. To analyze the impact of these variables on the cost estimation accuracy, an open structured questionnaire was published, and the most influencing variables were determined, studied, and covered by all the possible scenarios that might be generated. These scenarios would be considered as the rule base of the Fuzzy system describing the basic concept of Fuzzy logic and the relationships between variables. The main objective of this research, which is improving the cost estimate accuracy, will be achieved by modifying the contingency percentage as output from Fuzzy system.