"MEASURING AND ANALYZING PUBLIC OPINION AND ITS APPLICATIONS IN THE FIELD OF INTERNATIONAL CONFLICT"

Abstract

The general goal of this thesis is to achieve ·some ootribution towards clarifying :the role of·the statistical methodology in the field of "Public Opinion". the approach in providing... statistical tools, is to deal with "Public Opinion" as a field of politicaland Beha• vioral studies. The first chapter "Concepts of Public Opinion" is a brief presentation of the field of public opinion with emphase on those aspects which may serve the contexts of the other chapters. So, it includes, difinitions of some basic concepts and termenology used in the field of public opinion, and a discussion of the factors that affect the process of forming. public opinion with a presentation of some of its patterns (such as consensus). The statistical methods used in the field of public opinion could have two basic functions; measuring public opinion, and analyzing it. So, in chapter 2, "Measuring Public Opinion", we try to discuss the technique of the surveys used in measuring public opinion and attitudes, stressing on those aspects which are particularly relevant to them, rather than the research surveys in general. In addition, it is shown a field application of measuring attitudes (Asurvey of attitudes) about an Inter• national Conflict issue, in order to use its results to feed one of the experimental techniques presented in chapters 3 (A suggested computer simulation model of consensus). The two basic functions of the statistical approach to the I field of public opinion (measuring and analyzing) might be I included in the emperical, experimental techniques used for research and investigation in that field. Thus,chapter 3, "Experiments of Public Opinion"discusses the experimental methodology used in the political studies, and presents briefly some of those experimental technicques which involve studying either the process of forming public opinion or its function in the International Conflicts.