Estimation of the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) and Analysis of Grid Parity for Renewable Energy Technologies

Abstract

This thesis investigates the techno-economic feasibility of renewable energy technologies. The meteorological conditions of Egypt are used as the input data for the energy production and feasibility analysis. Two common types of renewable energy technologies are considered in this thesis; Photovoltaic and Wind Energy Technologies. The thesis also presents improved modeling and analysis of the levelized cost of energy (LCOE). The effective lifetime of various PV technologies rather than the usual use of the financial lifetime is considered in the LCOE. The impact of the effective lifetime, various PV technological characteristics, sun tracking options, and meteorological conditions on both energy production and LCOE are clearly investigated. The thesis also presents an improved framework for the techno-economic analysis of wind energy projects. The wind turbine generators are optimally matched to the available wind energy resource in the project candidate sites based on maximization of three performance indicators; capacity factor (CF), turbine performance index (TPI), and normalized average power using two wind turbine generator power output models. Based on energy production, the best site matching indicator is determined for various wind resources. For both technologies (i.e. solar-PVs and WTGs), a sensitivity analysis is also presented to show the impact of various input factors on the value of the LCOE. Based on the utility retail energy prices in Egypt, grid parity analysis is presented to show the feasibility of both technologies. The thesis also presents a comparison between the feasibility of both technologies in selected sites in Egypt based on three indices; energy production, LCOE, and land use. Finally, the thesis presents significant conclusions from all the analyses performed to show the best technology that provides significantly high techno-economical performance over the lifetime of various power plants. This thesis consists of five chapters and extensively, the statement and summary of their content are as follows: Chapter One: provides an overview of renewable energy resources and technologies. In addition, it provides a summary of the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) definitions and models as well as the definition of the grid parity concept. Chapter Two:presents an improved modelling and analysis of the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for solar-PV technology. The impact of considering the effective lifetime of various Solar-PV technologies rather than the financial lifetime on both energy production and LCOE values is presented. In addition, the impact of various input factors such as meteorological conditions, sun tracking options, various PV technological characteristics, and various financial inputs is presented. In addition, a grid parity analysis is presented for five selected sites in Egypt to show the feasibility of solar-PV projects. Chapter Three: presents an improved framework for the techno-economic feasibility analysis of wind energy projects. The framework depends on optimally matching wind turbine generators based on maximization of three indicators. These indicators are Capacity Factor (CF), Normalized Turbine Performance Index (TPI), and Normalized Average Power (P ̅_N). From modelling point of view, two wind turbine generators (WTG) output power curve models are used. These models are approximate model and exact model. Based on energy production results, the best performance index is determined. LCOE is calculated based on the best index and both power curve models. Sensitivity analysis is presented to show the impact of various inputs on LCOE value. In addition, a grid parity analysis is presented for seven selected sites in Egypt to show the feasibility ofwind project