SIMULATION OF THE EFFECT OF ADAPTATION STRAEGIES ON IMPROVING YIELD OF SOME CROPS GROWN UNDER EXPECTED CLIMATE CHANGE CONDITIONS

Abstract

Rapid changes of climate may seriously inhibit the ability of some crops to survive or to achieve the desired yield in their current region. Sustainable land and water management combined with innovative agricultural technologies could mitigate climate change and help poor farmers adapt to its impacts. New knowledge, technology and policy for agriculture have never been more critical, and adaptation and mitigation strategies must urgently be applied to national and regional development programs. Without these measures developing countries will suffer increased food insecurity. Our results showed that CropSyst model performance was highly acceptable for both wheat and maize with low value of root mean square error and high value of Willmott index of agreement. The result of calibration showed that both wheat and maize yield losses will be highly reduced under the effect of both climate change scenarios and water use efficiency will be also reduced. The positive effects of adaptation strategies on agriculture under climate change have been confirmed in many studies. The best way to adapt to some uncertain future climate is to improve adaptation to present day climate variability and reduce vulnerability to extreme events. Our results indicated that the following for both wheat cultivars: 1. Under A2 climate change scenario, planting wheat in the last week of November reduced yield losses and improved water use efficiency. 2. Under B2 climate change scenario, water use efficiency was the highest when wheat was sown in the third week of November and yield losses was the lowest.