Risk Management of Tunnelling and Underground Projects in Egypt

Abstract

Construction projects are considered to have the biggest share in the economic activity in the country. However, these construction projects are considered one of the most dynamic, risky, and challenging fields. One type of the most important constructor projects that play a vital role in the economic development is underground and tunneling projects. The main benefit of these projects is that it utilizes the subsurface space to accommodate activities. There are many construction companies working in this field in Egypt. They are exposed to face many problems during the execution of such projects due to their negligence to the risks which might face them during project estimation or project execution and also due to their associated side effects. Risks may cause cost overrun and schedule delay in many construction projects. Also, risks may affect productivity, performance, quality and budget of a construction project. High levels of risks are considered to be a significant possible obstacle for project success and safety. The main objective of this research study is to identify the most significant risk factors related to tunnel construction projects in Egypt by performing a qualitative risk assessment for such factors and identifying the risk response methods and strategies during the project life cycle. It introduces an important parameter which must be taken into consideration during risk assessment phase. That parameter is probability of occurrence and degree of impact of risk factors.The second objective is to develop expert system in a computer software application, which could help contractors in their preparation of effective risk management process for projects. It was developed by using the Weka Programme. A field survey was conducted through a structure quest ionnaire to selected experts from the companies working in that field in Egypt .The field survey was conducted with 35 experts in field of tunnel projects in Egypt .―SPSS‖ program was used to analyze the data to present statistical measures. Importance index and average risk were calculated to rank the risk factors for each class. And it was found that the top critical risk factors are as follows: 1. Potential instability: Frequent changes in government, agitation Risk Management of Tunneling and Underground Projects Page v for change of government or disputes between political parties 2. Increase of material and fuel price causing cost overrun. 3. Unexpected change in ground condition along the tunnel alignment. The suggested strategies that could be employed to mitigate the risks are identified. The most commonly used risk response technique is the risk reduction technique. It is concluded that it is widely used among the contractors working in tunnel projects in Egypt to eliminate the effect of the risks under the different risk categories considered in this research. For data mining, a risk expert system model is developed which could help contractors in their preparation of effective risk management process for underground projects in Egypt. Keywords: risk management, tunnel construction, probability index , impact index, importance index , risk strategy, expert system. To fulfill the previously mentioned objectives, this research was divided into yhe following chapters: Chapter (1) Introduction: This chapter is an introduction to this research discussing the importance, objectives and the scope of the research program. Chapter (2) Literature Review: This chapter presents an overview of risk definitions, followed by literature review of the past research efforts in construction projects risks in Egypt and abroad. Chapter (3) Risk Management Overview: This chapter includes an overview of risk management process, followed by some risk management items and then followed by overview on expert systems and their applications in construction industry. Chapter (4) Research Approach: This chapter introduces the research approach and methodology which was followed in this study. It also explains questionnaire description, data collection process and also the experts who filled-in this questionnaire and sampling techniques. Chapter (5) Risk Identification and Assessment for Tunnel Projects Data Collection, Analysis and Results: This chapter describes the analysis and evaluation methods which are performed to achieve risk management cycle. i.e., risks identification, assessment and mitigation also introduces the analysis which was performed on the collected data as per the methodology introduced in Chapter four. Besides it presents a thorough discussion and interpretation of the findings. Chapter (6) Data Mining & System Development: this chapter presentes the methodology flowed to develop the expert system (Risk Strategy) for tunnel construction of projects in Egypt.