Severy Prediction In Acute Pancreatitis

Abstract

The numbers of recognized and potential predictors of severity are increasing as we understand more of the pathophysiology of acute pancreatitis . No one marker is ideal and the selection is dependent on its availability and the time delay from onset to measurement. It is likely that the best marker will involve a combination of good markers. The most reliable available predictors are the APACHE-II score ( or APACH-0) and C reactive protein.A chest X-Ray should also be used. The most promising new markers include the pancreatic activation peptides and inflammatory mediators , IL - 6 and polymorphnuclear elastase. Logistic regression analysis has led to a formula which will allow the predicted probability of a severe outcome to be calculated. This is more readily understood by the attending medical staff than arbitrary cutoff currently in use, and allows for new variables to be added and tested.