Economic and environmental study on optimal crop pattern in the light of the expected water restrictions.

Abstract

The Nile River is the main source of water for Egypt, the agricultural sector in Egypt plays an important role in the national economy, where The value of agricultural production in 2014 amounted to 282.4 billion pounds, of which 230.5 billion pounds in the old agricultural land, or 81.6% of total value of agricultural production, while the new agricultural land contributed 51.9 billion pounds, or 18.4% of agricultural production. Moreover, the agricultural production, moreover, the agricultural sector is one of the largest sectors of the Labour force, especially in the field of agriculture and land reclamation. However, the Egyptian economy has been using the agricultural land resources available to meet the population needs since 1800 when the area of agricultural land was about 4 million feddans, increased to about 4.7 million feddans in 1880 at a time when the population was about 6.71 million people, About 8.9 million feddans and the population of about 90 million people in 2015, indicating the apparent imbalance between land and population resources and the deterioration of agricultural land. In spite of this, the strategy of agricultural development in Egypt until 2030 aims at increasing self-reliance rates in the provision of strategic food commodities from about 48.8%, 51% for wheat and maize in 2011 respectively to about 80.8%, 91.9% for wheat and maize in 2030 Respectively, while agricultural land, which is one of the most important agricultural economic resources in the provision of food, suffers from the problem of providing the needs of water crops due to water resources scarcity. Agriculture often contributes to domestic food production and to exports in Egypt. As the food problem in Egypt increases over time and resources are limited, food self-sufficiency is increasing. In addition, there are many other challenges that threaten the agricultural sector and food security in Egypt. Climate change and construction projects in the upstream countries of the Nile may have direct impacts on the amount of water, so the agricultural sector may be vulnerable. Achieving food self-sufficiency in commodities is imperative, requires more effort and time to pursue targeted policies and reduce the impact of the food gap in these crops. At the national level and at the level of the productive unit, agricultural planning aims at distributing the available economic resources so that the optimal use of these resources can be achieved in light