Impact Of Virtual Water Trade On Proposing Of Some Alternatives Crop In Egypt

Abstract

Water is one of the most important problems which is generally affecting the economic development and particularly affecting agriculture development. It is being one of the most important determinants of developments in different areas. Therefore there is a need to adopt a strategy for food security which involves water policy in its center. This paper aimed to: (i) study the needs of irrigation water for the studied crops and the irrigation water return unit for each of them, (ii) study the possibility of expansion in other crops with low needs of water and have the greatest water return, (iii) estimate the ratio costs/revenue by estimating economic prices of the final outputs and production factors of each crop. In this regard, the results indicated the increase of physical productivity of irrigation water unit for wheat, bean and maize compared to other imported crops. It was estimated at 1.54 tons/1000 m³, 1.11 tons/1000 m³ and 1.07 tons/1000 m³, respectively, as an average for the study in 2008-2012. Regarding the heavy consuming water crops, the data indicated that productivity per unit water resource of rice was estimated at 0.72 tons/1000 m³. Whereas, sugar cane was estimated at 5.18 tons/1000 m³ which is equivalent to about 0.49 tons/1000 m³ of water irrigation. The results also indicated that the importance of the overall productivity cost of the denominated prices of economic crops of wheat, maize, bean, sugar cane, sesame, was about 3881, 3672, 3591, 6705 and 2669 pounds/Feddan, respectively. This is equivalent to about 67.8%, 57%, 42.4%, 8.2% and 50.9% of the economic value of the yield/ Feddan, respectively. The cost of irrigation has reached 6.2%, 8.7%, 4.6%, 12.9% and 8.9% of the total costs of those crops, respectively. The results of the provided irrigation water and its counterpart, which can be lost when it is being exported, that the average import efficiency of wheat was about 9.64 million tons in 2008-2012. This leads to importing about 6.3 billion m³ of water, which is equivalent to 1.97 billion pounds. With respect to bean, the importing energy was about 21.8 thousand tons which reflects the irrigation cost of 6.2 million pounds. With respect to maize, the value of the irrigation cost in importing case was about 6.1 million tons which is equivalent to 5.7 billion m³ (1.81 billion pounds). The estimates also showed that the amount that has been saved from importing sugar cane was about 1.8 billion m³ of water (570.5 million pounds). For the sesame, it has a value of 20.7 thousand tons, which led to import about 111.6 million m³ of water (35.15 million pounds). With regard to export crops results indicated that the amount of water that has been lost through the export of about 327 thousand tons of Egyptian rice which is equivalent to 451.2 million m³ (142.1 million pounds). For cotton, the estimated amount of lost water due to exporting was 56.6 thousand tons, equivalent to about 188.7 million m³ (59.4 million pounds). Alternatives study to maximize the use of water showed that, - The first alternative depends on reducing rice area of about 300 thousand acres and planting corn instead. - The second alternative depends on the reduction of rice area of about 300 thousand acres and plant cotton instead. - The third alternative suggested reducing the planted cane sugar area with about 1/3 of the current area. Then replace it with five courses to plant wheat then maize, or wheat then sesame or soybean then corn, or bean then sesame, or alfalfa then cotton.

Depending on the obtained results, the researchers recommend the following: 1- There is a need to involve the value of the water resource in the cost and return calculations which are related to the economic decision-making. It is important to consider that water resources are economic resources. 2- Reduce rice area with about 300 thousand acres and planting corn instead to increase the national income of agricultural with about 35.6 million pounds besides the benefit from the expansion in the wheat and maize cultivation. 3- We should not rely on the second alternative, which includes the reduction in rice area with about 300 thousand acres and cultivate cotton instead because thgis alternative will lead to decrease the national income with about 664.1 million pounds. 4- Reduce sugar cane area without affecting sugar factories. Therefore, alfalfa can be planted which is followed by cotton. This will increase the national income with about 264.2 million pounds.