BUILD A MODEL TO MEASURE THE IMPACT OF THE ECONOMIC VARIABLES CONSISTING OF SELF-SUFFICIENCY RATIO OF WHEAT IN EGYPT AFTER THE INTERNATIONALLY CLASSIFIED

Abstract

Egyptian Economy suffers from problem of low self-sufficiency rate of wheat, which estimated on average by about 55% during the time period 1992-2009. This problem led to increased dependency on imports in securing the required needs for consumption. The research aims mainly at building a model includes a number of variables used in calculation of self-sufficiency rate of wheat in Egypt. The model will help on studying the impact of these variables, and estimating their influences in the future. Results of the applied model helps on proposing a number of future scenarios to overcome a number of important problems in which Egyptian wheat sector is suffered from. According the results of research, Egypt classified within group of 34 countries, which their self-sufficiency rate ranged from 50 to less than 100% during the period of study (1992-2009). Number of population of this group reached around 2021 million, representing about 33% of the total world population, and its wheat production estimated of about 174 million tons, representing 29% of the total world production of wheat. The imports of that group estimated of about 45 million tons, representing about 34% of the total world imports of wheat during the period of study. The human consumption of wheat for this group estimated of about 164 million tons, representing around 40% of total human consumption all over the world. To raise the self-sufficiency rate of wheat in Egypt, the research proposes an economic policy, which could start in 2014, and aims at: Reducing the amount of wheat destined for feeding animal by about 10% annually, Reducing the amount of wastage of wheat by about 10% annually, Reducing per capita consumption of wheat by about 5% annually. Results of applying the pre-mentioned actions could be summarized as follows: The amount of wheat destined for animal feeding will reduce of about 1.4 million tons, with value of US$ 414 million in 2014 to reach about 0.7 million tons with value of US$ 198 million in 2020. The amount of wastage of wheat will reduce from 1.1 million tons with value of USS 293 million in 2014 to reach about 0.5 million tons with value of US$ 143 million in 2020. Per capita wheat consumption will reduce of 146 Kg with value of US$ 41 in 2014 to reach about 102 Kg with value of US$ 29 in 2020. If policy maker in Egypt apply the proposed policy, it is expected to reach rate of self-sufficiency of wheat around 106% in 2020, comparing with 69% in the same year if it is not apply any policies. For policy-making of wheat in Egypt from an international perspective, the research recommends preparing research and future studies, to discuss the main factors, which affect the balance of food of wheat not only for Egypt, but also on the level of other countries in the world.