AN ECONOMIC STUDY FOR THE OIL FOOD GAP IN EGYPT

Abstract

Research Problem was in the inability of the domestic production of the Egyptian vegetable oils to meet the increasing needs of the consumer's, with an average actual production of vegetable oils in Egypt about 293.02 thousand tons on average for the period (2006-2010), while the average domestic consumption of which about 938.27 thousand tons during the same period, which means there is a gap in the vegetable oil amounted to 645.25 thousand tons, requiring imports a large amount of vegetable oil was estimated at 694.68 thousand tons on average for the period (2006-2010) average of a monetary value amounted to 823.96 million dollars, representing about 4.48% of the average deficit in the national balance of trade amounting to about 18.38 billion dollars as the average for the same period. Therefore the current research targeted study of the current status of production and consumption of vegetable oils and analysis of the gap in Egypt, in addition to identifying the most important factors affecting consumption, a search has adopted on the two methods of statistical analysis descriptive and quantitative to clarify the research problem and analyze the various components. The results showed that the ratio of exports to imports of vegetable oils amounted to about 9.76% which is low compared to cover the total exports to imports in whole or in food exports to food imports, amounting to about 53.63%, 34.3% each respectively during the period (2006-2010). Oils produced in Egypt based mainly on crops, soybeans, cotton seeds, peanuts, and flax seeds, sunflower, sesame, and The results showed that coefficient of instability for each of the area and the productivity and production of those crops, the yield of sesame, which is ranked first in terms of stability indicators productivity crop followed by groundnut and cotton, and sunflower, which is ranked last crop of soybeans. The crops were all characterized by relative stability, where the value of transactions close to the instability of zero for all productivity indicators for all oil crops. The results of the appreciation of the statistical function of consumption of vegetable oils in Egypt preference is logarithmic dual representation of that relationship, it turns out that the average per capita vegetable oils k.g / year responsible for 81% of the change in quantity consumed from vegetable oils, By increasing this variable by 1% lead to increase the quantity of oil consumed by 0.91%, in anther attempt shows that the total amount of oil imports are responsible for 49% of the changes in the quantity consumed of oils, By increasing this variable by 1% leads to increase the quantity of oil consumed by 0.36% during the period (1995-2010).