An Economic Study of the Impact of Risk on Agricultural Production of some Agricultural Commodities in Egypt

Abstract

The research aimed to study the impact of two types of risks, namely climatic risks and production risks. The most important results with regard to climatic risks were the effect of both temperature and humidity on the types of food commodities adopted by the research, which agreed with economic and technical logic. As for production risks, two types of scenarios were analysed, the first being the typical model and the second adopting the idea of reducing rice area by 25% in exchange for raising the self-sufficiency rate of maize by 15% during the period (2016-2021). The research showed that the second scenario is better than the first during the study period, as it achieved a higher net return and is consistent with state policies in terms of reducing rice area, as rice is one of the crops that consumes the most fresh water in Egypt. The second scenario under study also achieves an increase in the rate of self-sufficiency in the maize crop. It is considered one of the most important commodities for animal feed. This indicates an improvement in the Egyptian trade balance.