An Economic Study of the Food Gap of Wheat in Egypt to Face some Crises

Abstract

The research aimed at estimating the size of the food gap of wheat in Egypt during (2000-2019), where the research relied in statistical analysis on some descriptive and quantitative statistical methods. The results showed an increase in the area of wheat and the quantity produced during (2000-2019) with an annual growth rate of about 1.62%, 1.71% respectively, an increase in the quantity of imports, consumption and the wheat gap at annual rates of about 0.44, 0.523, 0.385 million tons, representing about 5.2%, 3.4%, 5.3% of the average of about 8.52, 15.32, 7.23 million tons respectively, during (2000-2019). The food security coefficient declined from 0.35 as an average for (2006-2012) to 0.28 as an average for (2013-2019). This may be due to low supply price, which negatively affected on food security during that period. The results showed that the net yield of feddan of wheat in the previous season was the most important variable affecting the cultivated area of wheat. Also found that the agricultural price policy was in the disadvantage of wheat producers during (2015-2020). The most influential factors on the wheat gap are size of population, the area planted with wheat, and per capita share of wheat, while the most influential factors on the food security factor are size of the wheat stock and self-sufficiency rate. Therefore, the research recommends the need to reconsider the crop pattern in order to achieve an increase in the area of wheat by raising the supply price and state support for farmers.