An Economic Study for Oranges Exports to the Most Important External Markets from Egypt

Abstract

The issue of water resources is considered the main actor in government policies related to the agricultural sector, given that the agricultural sector is considered one of the most productive sectors that use water in Egypt, as the percentage of water used in the agricultural sector reached about 81% of water uses. The problem of the study crystallizes in the lack of noticeable effects of government policies related to rationalization of irrigation water in agriculture, especially in light of the challenges that Egypt faces related to the decrease in the volume of water resources. The study aims to know the general features of government policies related to water resources and their impact on the current situation of the agricultural trade balance in light of government decisions related to commercial and production policies related to rationalizing the use of irrigation water. The study relied on descriptive and quantitative analysis methods, to measure the phenomena and variables related to the problem and used well-known statistical analysis tools such as the Vector Autoregressive Model, which is abbreviated to var, and these tools were indicated in their respective places. By reviewing the general features to estimate the response of the agricultural trade balance in Egypt to the structural changes occurring in the most important government policies related to water resources, it becomes clear that the time period of these policies for their impact does not exceed one year in the near term, which indicates the importance of the state working to reconsider government policies Related to water resources and its impact on the agricultural trade balance in Egypt. The most important results were the following: 1- The most important markets that import Egyptian oranges in the world are (Russia, Saudi Arabia, Netherlands, China, United Arab Emirates), about 55.7% of the total amount of Egyptian oranges exports. 2- The most important variables that affect the amount of imports of Egyptian oranges to foreign markets, which were the Egyptian export price, the population of the importing countries, the distance between Egypt and the most important countries importing oranges from it, and the gross national product in those countries. 3- The price elasticity of demand was estimated at about 4.13%, which indicates that Egyptian oranges are elastic in export. Which shows that the change in the export price has a significant impact on the imports of those markets of Egyptian oranges, which calls for attention to the price policies taken by Egypt, regarding the export of the most important crops such as oranges, so that it can retain the aforementioned markets, in addition to acquiring new foreign markets that suit the Egyptian export prices.