Simultaneous Equations Models For Fava bean Crop in Egypt

Abstract

The research aimed to identify the development of production, consumption and imports of municipal beans in Egypt during the period (2010-2019) as well as the work of an econometric model consisting of the most important interlocking and mutual variables that make up the municipal bean market in Egypt, whether production, consumption or import. It was found that the amount of production of the municipal bean crop decreases annually at an estimated rate of about 9.7 thousand tons per year, representing about 0.67% of the annual average of the total production of about 1468.0 thousand tons (2010-2019) and that the amount of the percentage available for consumption of the municipal bean crop increases annually by about 56.5 thousand tons annually, representing about 1.0% of the annual average of the total percentage available for consumption, which is about 5598.0 thousand tons. The amount of imports of the municipal bean crop increases annually by about 69.5 thousand tons annually, representing about 1.6% of the annual average of total imports of about 4361.0 thousand tons. One of the results of the estimate is the forecasting of municipal bean models that production is deteriorating from year to year and the same is the case for the prediction of the general trend at a time when the expected consumption values of fully matured beans increase from year to year in the direction of doubling consumption during recent years, which leads to the collapse of bean cultivation in general and dependence entirely on imports.