Variation of Estimates of Statistical Models Used in Forecasting the Foreign Trade of Potatoes in Egypt

Abstract

The problem of the research is that most of the economic studies that use different methods of forecasting lead to different predictions using a specific model in comparison and other models, which causes misleading decision-makers. For this reason, the research aims to study the most common forecasting methods used in scientific economic studies, and compare the advantages of these methods , to get to the best of it in forecasting economic variables. The most important results: 1- The annual growth rate in the quantity and value of potato imports in Egypt, which are mainly used as seeds, was greater than exports, and this is not in favor of the Egyptian balance of payments. 2- The extent of the credibility and possibility of using the standard real-time model in estimating the successive effect of any sudden changes in the values ​​of the internal or external variables of the external trade of potatoes in Egypt is clear. As its results are less biased than the results of the predictions of other methods used, and the estimates of the instantaneous model are the closest to the estimates of the actual values, especially that the simultaneous model depends on the mutual influence of variables unlike other methods that were covered by the research.