An Econometric Model of the Egyptian Wheat Market

Abstract

Where that Egypt suffered in recent times from a large deficit in the general budget, and a huge increase in the external debt and local levels, and a significant decline of cash reserves in foreign had to curb the rise worsening of the import bill of wheat from abroad on the national economy, as the amount of Egyptian imports of wheat, about 4896 thousand tons in 2000, amounting to 2485 million pounds, representing increase of 22.16% of the value of food imports in the same year, and continued to increase until it reached 10,594 tons in 2010, valued at 14,719 million pounds, despite the low quantity slightly in 2011 to about 9800 tons has increased to $ about 19087 million pounds, representing increase of 28.71% of the value of food imports in the same year, amounting to about 66481 million pounds. Targeted search view and analyze the impact of local variables and global economies wheat Egyptian and the capacity of the wheat market, Egyptian and by estimating the standard model of economic variables affecting the food gap for wheat, and to predict the values of variables and economic variables derived from them until 2020. Which shows that under the conditions of producer and consumer, the current anticipated productivity gap Total consumption of wheat will continue almost unchanged until 2020, where it is expected to reach the size of about 8717 thousand tons with self-sufficiency about 51.3% on average for the period (2013-2020), compared to the size during the third period (2007-2012) in table (1), which was estimated at about 7240 thousand tons with self-sufficiency was estimated at about 52.5% during that period. As can be seen, it is expected to increase the productivity gap projected for the consumption of fortified wheat used in the production of bread Supply where size is expected to reach about 2657 thousand tons with self-sufficiency about 77.5% on average for the period (2013-2020), while the amount is expected to achieve about 74 production % of the amount required for the production of subsidized bread in 2020, where he is expected to reach the size of the total production of wheat, about 9726 thousand tons, down an estimated 3419 thousand tons. Recommended research to increase the amount of production through vertical expansion to increase the productivity per unit area circulate varieties high productivity, and horizontal expansion of new lands using methods pivot irrigation where is the wheat crop low water needs, and in the old lands by finding alternatives to the crop of alfalfa main rival for wheat. Rationalization of the average per capita consumption of wheat by rearranging the wheat support mechanism to ensure the quality and reduce wastage.