Impacts of High Wind Penetration Levels on Estimating and Allocating Reserve Needs

Abstract

Reserve needs are impacted by the growing proportion of variable output renewable technologies like wind. This paper develops a probabilistic approach for estimating, allocating, and forecasting reserve needs according to the effects of wind power, which relies on estimating fast and slow-response reserves depending on the analysis of short-term variations and forecast errors. EasyFit 5.5 software is used in the analysis for picking the probability distribution that best fits the given data. The primary feature of this method is the decrease of fast-response reserve needs that are expensive in comparison with that of slow-response. The approach is applied to a real case study, and the proposed strategy's fast and slow response reserves correspond to 6.9-8.4% and 19-31.6% of installed wind capacity, respectively, at a 99.7% confidence level.